SOFTWARE: STRATEGIC POSITIONING AND MARKET FORECASTS TO 2001

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REPORT NO.    A292731196932    270+ PAGES   55 TABLES AND FIGURES   1996  

    Software is profitable with margins over 40% in some cases.  Systems, middleware, and applications represent discrete segments of the business.  Consolidation of markets is likely.  A few companies dominate segments, but diversity is the rule.

    Combined, the top three software companies accounted for 24% of the 1996 software market revenue of $109 billion.  This leaves $83 billion to be made by multiple other smaller market participants.  Opportunity exists to participate in multiple sectors by acquisition.  Software engineering techniques have reduced new product cycles to a year or less, permitting market entry by product development as well.  The markets are expected to reach $232 billion by 2001.

    Selected software market segments are growing at 85% per year.  Others are growing at 45%. Rapid growth is occurring in segments that support network centric computing.  Average growth is 15% per year.

 

 

 

 

Software 

Market Forecasts To 2001

 

 

Explosive growth of multiple software market segments is stimulated by price performance improvements in computing hardware. 

 

Network centric computing provides productivity improvements brought by new software applications.   Computing interoperability is also responsible for increased use of more software systems.  Migration of industrial strength functionality in the context of distributed computing environments is extending the size of software markets. Open systems computing is driving software market growth as well

 

Software is profitable with margins over 40% in some cases.  Large, medium and small companies succeed in the market.  Software engineering techniques have reduced new product cycles to a year of less, permitting market entry by product development as well as through acquisition.

 

Consolidation of market participants is likely.  A few companies dominate small segments of the business, but diversity is the rule. 

 

Combined, the top three software companies accounted for 24% of the 1996 software market revenue of $109 billion.  Opportunity exists to participate in multiple sectors by acquisition. as well.   Markets are expected to reach $232 billion by 2001.

 

Selected software market segments are growing at 85% per year.  Others are growing at 45%.  Growth of 15% per year is the average.


 

The Study Addresses:

        How to participate in high growth software segments

        Strategic positioning of software providers 

        Market directions and strategic market alliances

        Risk/reward scenarios -- access to existing customer bases

        Strategies for success


 You NEED This Study

 

COMPANIES PROFILED


AUTODESK                                                                                                                                                                   

AVANT                                                                                                                                                                            

BRODERBUND                                                                                                                                                              

COM21                                                                                                                                                                            

COMPUTER ASSOCIATES INTERNATIONAL                                                                                                      

HEWLETT-PACKARD                                                                                                                                                  

IBM                                                                                                                                                                                  

INFORMIX                                                                                                                                                                     

BMC SOFTWARE                                                                                                                                                         

BORLAND INTERNATIONAL                                                                                                                                    

BRODERBUND                                                                                                                                                              

INSO                                                                                                                                                                               

INTEGRATED MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS                                                                                                            

MICROSOFT                                                                                                                                                                 

NETSCAPE COMMUNICATIONS                                                                                                                            

OPEN VISION                                                                                                                                                               

ORACLE CORPORATION                                                                                                                                          

PARAMETRIC TECHNOLOGY                                                                                                                                  

PEACHTREE SOFTWARE                                                                                                                                           

SOFTBANK                                                                                                                                                                   

SUN MICROSYSTEMS                                                                                                                                               

UNIPHASE                                                                                                                                                                      

VERITAS                                                                                                                                                                         

WIND RIVER SYSTEMS                                                                                                                                              

3COM                                                                                                                                                                              

 


REPORT OUTLINE

executive summary                                                                                                                                                   

1. MARKET DEFINITION                                                                                                                                                 

Classification                                                                                                                                                                 

Impact of Internet                                                                                                                                                          

Operating systems                                                                                                                                                         

Applications                                                                                                                                                                    

Middleware                                                                                                                                                                     

E-mail                                                                                                                                                                              

Databases                                                                                                                                                                        

Distributed enterprise solutions                                                                                                                                  

Interconnects                                                                                                                                                                  

Power of information                                                                                                                                                     

Distributed enterprise solutions                                                                                                                                  

2. SOFTWARE MARKET FORECASTS                                                                                                                         

Summary forecasts                                                                                                                                                        

Operating systems                                                                                                                                                         

Mainframe / Midrange/ PC                                                                                                                                         

Database systems                                                                                                                                                           

Relational database                                                                                                                                                      

Mainframe database                                                                                                                                                    

Client/server database                                                                                                                                                 

Data warehouses                                                                                                                                                         

Middleware messaging                                                                                                                                                

 Data extraction                                                                                                                                                           

Tools                                                                                                                                                                                

Software testing                                                                                                                                                          

System management                                                                                                                                                    

Network management                                                                                                                                                 

Applications                                                                                                                                                                    

PC applications                                                                                                                                                           

Client server office suites                                                                                                                                            

Workstation                                                                                                                                                                

Healthcare information systems                                                                                                                                 

Manufacturing                                                                                                                                                             

Internet                                                                                                                                                                           

Internet/Intranet browsers                                                                                                                                            

Internet/Intranet server software                                                                                                                                 

Intranet site building tools                                                                                                                                           

Firewalls and anti-virus products                                                                                                                               

Document automation                                                                                                                                                 

Internet service providers                                                                                                                                           

Year 2000 conversion                                                                                                                                                     

3. PRODUCTS                                                                                                                                                                     

Operating systems                                                                                                                                                         

Microsoft client operating systems / NT                                                                                                                   

Enterprise resource planning software (ERP)                                                                                                             

Year 2000 conversion                                                                                                                                                     

Database products                                                                                                                                                          

Desktop database products                                                                                                                                        

Midrange database                                                                                                                                                      

Database management systems                                                                                                                                   

Data warehouses                                                                                                                                                         

Object oriented DBMS                                                                                                                                               

Application development and business intelligence tools                                                                                        

Business applications / SSA                                                                                                                                       

Groupware                                                                                                                                                                      

Lotus Notes / Lotus Domino                                                                                                                                      

Microsoft Exchange                                                                                                                                                    

Software development tools                                                                                                                                          

Microsoft C++                                                                                                                                                            

Electronic commerce and Internet software                                                                                                               

Desktop applications software                                                                                                                                      

Office suites / Microsoft Backoffice                                                                                                                            

Messaging                                                                                                                                                                       

Electronic mail                                                                                                                                                             

Messaging middleware                                                                                                                                                

Spreadsheets                                                                                                                                                                  

Internet/Intranet products and services                                                                                                                      

Technology                                                                                                                                                                           

Java                                                                                                                                                                                  

Platforms / Lotus / Microsoft                                                                                                                                        

Product development cycles                                                                                                                                          

APIs / Directories                                                                                                                                                           

Universal messaging                                                                                                                                                      

Modular code                                                                                                                                                                  

Replication                                                                                                                                                                      

Decision-support applications                                                                                                                                      

Network control and systems management                                                                                                                

Fiber based consumer architectures                                                                                                                            

Cable TV broadband                                                                                                                                                      

Encryption                                                                                                                                                                       

5. SOFTWARE COMPANY PROFILES                                                                                                                           

 


LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

FORECASTS 1996-2001

Market Shares for 1996

Shipments in Millions of Dollars

Software summary market forecast                                                                                                                          

Operating system software summary

Database software summary forecast,

Trends in software industry                                                                                                                                       

Growth factors in software industry                                                                                                                         

Computer software classifications                                                                                                                            

Selected software company sales                                                                                                                               

IBM software by segment, 1996                                                                                                                                 

Microsoft software by segment, 1996                                                                                                                       

Client server messaging system features                                                                                                               

Trends in software industry                                                                                                                                       

Growth factors in software industry                                                                                                                         

Leaders in software industry                                                                                                                                      

Selected mainframe operating system

Worldwide market participants, 1996                                                                                                                      

Operating system software summary

Mainframe operating system worldwide / U.S. system shares  /  shipments

                                                                                                                                                                                          

Midrange operating system worldwide / U.S. system shares  /  shipments

                                                                                                                                                                                          

PC operating system worldwide/U.S.,

system shares  /  shipments

Mainframe database worldwide shares

                                                                                                                                                                                          

Mainframe database market forecasts, worldwide, U.S.

Server database products                                                                                                                                            

Server database worldwide shares                                                                                                                             

Server relational database systems worldwide, U.S.                                                                                              

Selected data warehouse participants

Database market forecasts, worldwide

Data extraction, worldwide shipments

Software testing tools worldwide shares

System management tools installed base shares

System management tools worldwide shipments

Selected network management market participants                                                                                             

Network management software shipments

PC application software application worldwide market

Workstation CAD worldwide shipment dollars

Multimedia worldwide shipment dollars

Graphical/engineering design, worldwide

Workstation CAD, multimedia, graphic design, worldwide

Healthcare information systems, worldwide shipments

Worldwide/US Internet users / data                                                                                                                          

Internet browser market shares worldwide

Internet browser, worldwide shipments

Internet server applications tools, worldwide

Intranet server application tools, worldwide

Intranet/Internet site building tools, worldwide

Firewalls worldwide

Selected Internet service providers                                                                                                                           

 

REPORT METHODOLOGY

This is the nineteenth in a series of market forecasts of Internet data communications, telecommunications,  and information services.  The project leaders have significant experience preparing industry studies.  Forecasts are based on primary research and proprietary data bases.  In-depth interviews are conducted with a broad range of key participants in the market.


 

 

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