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Report No. S80310009519  300+Pages 125 Tables and Figures       2000   


    Lucent has gained position in order to identify and respond to key driving forces in communications markets.  Key driving forces affecting international strategic and competitive positions include intensifying competition on a global scale, the pace of technological change, and a decrease in product development cycle times.

    The success of technology and new product offerings requires identification of customer needs, implementation of cost-effective products, timely new product completion, and coordinated product introduction.  Lucent has a stellar record in executing high growth strategy in complex market conditions. 

    Telecommunications equipment provider response to change involves accurate evaluation of the competition and effective, timely introduction of new products and services. 

    Globalization of national economies and the dominance of the Internet promise to impact every market segment in which Lucent participates.  E-commerce and the evolution of supply chain exchanges create demand for increasing amounts of communications capacity.  The Internet is creating a revolution in business.




Lucent Market Assessment













WinterGreen Research, Inc.

Lexington, Massachusetts











Telecommunication Industry Restructuring

Lucent Market Strategies

    Lucent Reinvents Itself

Lucent Market Growth Opportunities

Lucent Technologies Positioned As Primary Supplier

-Worldwide Telecommunications Equipment Market Forecasts

Worldwide Market Shares

Circuit Switches


Digital Loop Carrier

Fiber Optic And Transmission Equipment

High Capacity Synchronous Optical Transport




 This is the Forty First report in a series of market research reports that provide forecasts in communications, telecommunications, the internet, computer, software, and telephone equipment.  The project leaders take direct responsibility for writing and preparing each report.  They have significant experience preparing industry studies.  Forecasts are based on primary research and proprietary data bases.  Forecasts reflect analysis of the market trends in the segment and related segments.  Unit and dollar shipments are analyzed through consideration of dollar volume of each market participation in the segment.  market share analysis includes conversations with marketing directors, distributors, leading market participants, and companies seeking to develop measurable market share.  Over 200 in depth interviews are conducted for each report with a broad range of key participants and opinion leaders in the market segment.



Lucent is a Leader In Developing The Future of Worldwide Telecommunications Equipment





ES.  Lucent Executive Summary   

Carrier Competitive Forces  

Carrier Customer Demands  

Core Switching Solutions  

Lucent Wavestar™ LambdaRouter 

Redefining Network Configuration  

Lucent Leads Telecommunications Markets   Optical Switch Positioning  

Telecommunications Market DESCRIPTION  

1.1                        Rapid Change  

1.2                        Lucent Strategy  

1.3                        Lucent Reorganization  

1.4                        Market Dynamics  

1.5                        Core Networks  

1.6                        Consolidated Solutions  

1.7                        Dependence On New Product Development 

1.8                        Lucent Key Business Challenges  

1.9                        Growing Demand For Broadband Telecommunications 

1.10                        Total System Solutions  

1.10.1                    DSL Service Connection  

1.11                        Global Manufacturing  

1.12                        Product Innovation  

1.13                        CLEC Market 

1.14                        CLECs  

1.15                        T1/E1 Access  

1.16                        Geographic Networks 

1.17                        Workgroup Computing  

1.18                        Improved Networks  

1.19                        Growth Opportunities  

1.20                        Bringing Products To Market 

1.21                        Industry Background  

1.21.1                    Increase In Data Traffic On The Public Network  

1.21.2                    Convergence Of Voice And Data Signals  

1.21.3                    Existing Public Network Transmission Infrastructure  

1.21.4                    Network Primary Components  

1.21.5                    Network Imbedded Intelligence  

1.21.6                    Optical SONET and DWDM Systems  

1.21.7                    SONET Obsolescence  

1.22                        Market Assessment - Carrier Needs  

1.22.1                    Access Networks  

1.22.2                    Long-Haul Network  

1.22.3                    Long-Haul Bandwidth  

1.22.4                    New Network Dynamics  

1.22.5                    Bandwidth Provisioned To Users  

1.22.6                    Service Network (OSN) solutions  

1.23                        Optical Internet 

1.23.1                    Realizing Packet-Based Multi-Service Networks  

1.23.2                    Second Wave Of Fiber Build-Out 

1.24                        Growth Of Optical Networking  

1.24.1                    Almost Limitless Bandwidth  

1.25                        Motive To Develop Optical Switching  

1.26                        Application Service Provider Provisioning  

1.26.1                    Application Availability  


Lucent Market Forecasts

2-1                        Telecommunications Market Driving Forces  

2.2                        Carrier Competitive Forces 

2.3                        Carrier Customer Demands 

2.4                        Carrier Equipment Market Shares 

2.5                        Digital Loop Carrier Market Shares 

2.6                        Pricing 

2.6.1                    DLC Pricing Variables  

2.6.2                    Alcatel Pricing  

2.6.3                    Lucent Pricing  

2.6.4                    AFC pricing 

2.7                        Digital Loop Carrier Market Forecasts  

2.7.1                    Penetration Analysis  

2.7.2                    Large Digital Loop Carriers  

2.7.3                    Small Digital Loop Carriers  

2.7.4                    Digital Loop Carrier Forecast 

2.7.5                    Replacement Market 

2.7.6                    ADSL Market Shares  

2.8                        Symmetric DSL (SDSL) 

2.8.1                    SDSL Market Shares  

2.8.2                    SDSL Market Shares  

2.8.3                    SDSL DSLAM Market Forecasts  

2.8.4                    RBOCS and SDSL Growth Potential 

2.9                        Circuit Switch Market Shares  

2.10                        Circuit Switch Market Forecasts  

2.11                        ATM    

2.12                        ATM Market Forecasts  

2.13                        DWDM Market Shares  

2.14                        DWDM Market Forecasts  

2.14.1                    Market Shares of Wireless Infrastructure Markets  

2.15                        Wireless Market Forecasts 


3.1                        Lucent Systems  

3.2                        Core Switching Solutions  

3.2.1                    Lucent Wavestar™ Lambdarouter 

3.2.2                    Motive To Develop Optical Switching  

3.2.3                    Photonic Switching  

3.2.4                    All-Optical Switching Technologies  

3.2.5                    Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) 

3.2.6                    Alternatives To MEMS Technology  

3.2.7                    Difficulties With Optical Switching  

3.2.8                    Optical Packet Switching  

3.3                        Remote Switching Solutions  

3.3.1                    Remoting Capabilities Of 5ESS ® - 2000 Switch  

3.4                        Optical Transport 

3.5                        Wireless Products  

3.5.1                    Lucent's Flexent™ Wireless IP Core Network Architecture  

3.5.2                    Lucent Milife™ Media Platform   

3.6                        Software Products  

3.6.1                    Lucent Billing And Customer Care Platform   

3.7                        Data Networking  

3.8                        Professional Services  

3.9                        Lucent Integrated Circuits  

3.10                        Optoelectronics  

3.11                        Fiber Optics  

3.12                        Fiber To The Last Mile  

3.13                        Seamless All-Optical Network Issues  

3.13.1                    Quality Of Service (QoS) functions  

3.13.2                    QoS Different Levels Of Global Service  

3.13.3                    Network Efficiency  

3.14                        Integrate IP Routing Equipment And Optical Transport Gear  

Lucent SEGMENT AND Regional Analysis

4.1                        Sector Sales 

4.2                        Regional Shipments 

4.3                        Verizon / Lucent Technologies  

4.3.1                    Lucent / Verizon Wireless 

4.3.2                    Systems, Software And Services For Global Optical-Data Network  

4.4                        WINfirst 

4.5                        Lucent Technologies CDMA Wireless Contract China Unicom 

4.6                        Omantel 

4.7                        Joint IP Billing And Network Management Platform   

4.8                        BT Ignite Deploy Lucent Softswitch For IP-Based Services  

4.9                        DWDM Capacity  

4.10                        Lucent / Deutsche Telekom     

Lucent Company Profile

5.1                        Global Telecommunications Networking Industry 

5.2                        Lucent Revenue 

5.2.1                    Revenues By Segment 2001 

5.2.2                    Lucent Technologies Revenue 1997-2000 

5.3                        Acquisitions 

5.3.1                    Ortel Corporation 

5.3.2                    Spring Tide Networks 

5.4                        Sale Of PBX / Avaya Spinoff

5.5                        Sale Of Power Systems  

5.6                        Bell Labs  


Many of these Key Topics Have Phenomenal Subcategories


List of Tables and Figures

Market Forecasts 2000-2005              Market Shares 1999


Margin Analysis For A Narrowband ISP

A Cost And Performance Comparison Of A Two-Mile Connection For The

Three Types Of T1 Deployment

Switching Support for Varied Geographic Networks

Network Components

Service Provider Environment

Service Provider Repositioning Stance


Service Provider Response To Network Shifts

Elements That Comprise Communications Networks For Service Providers

Function Of Communications Networks

Service Provider Network Functions

Service Provider Economics In The Metro OSN Solutions Market

Factors Driving Growth Of Optical Networking

Advantages Provided By Fiber Optic Switching

Telecommunications Market Driving Forces

Principal Competitive Factors In Carrier Markets

Competitive Product Positioning For Carrier Markets

Carrier Market Success Factors

Digital Loop Carrier Customer Demands

Carrier Equipment Market Positioning

Worldwide Digital Loop Carrier Market Shares, 2000

Digital Loop Carrier Market Shares, 2000

DLC Market Penetration, Unit Shipment Analysis, United States, 2000-2006

Digital Loop Carrier Data Line Size Market Penetration, 1999-2006

Large Digital Loop Carrier Market Forecasts, 1999-2006

Digital Loop Carrier Large System Shipments, Units and Dollars, 1999-2006

Small And Mid Size Digital Loop Carrier Market Forecasts, 1999-2006

Digital Loop Carrier Small and Mid Size System Shipments,

Units and Dollars, 1999-2006

Digital Loop Carrier Market Forecasts, 1999-2006

Digital Loop Carrier Data Center Market Forecasts, Dollars, 1999-2006

DLC Market Dollar Shipment Analysis, United States, 2000-2006

SDSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000

SDSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000

SDSL DSLAM Market Forecasts, Worldwide, 2000-2006

Total DSL Market Forecasts, Worldwide, 2000-2006

DSL Market Forecasts, Dollars, By Segment, 2000-2006

Circuit Switch Market Shares, 2000

Global Central Office Switch Market Shares, 2000

Circuit Switch Market Forecasts, 2000-2006

Global Circuit Switch Market Shipment Forecasts, Dollars, 2001-2006

ATM Market Shares, 2000

Global Wide Area Network ATM Equipment Market Shares, 2000

ATM Switch Market Forecasts, Dollars, 2000-2006

Global Wide Area Network ATM Switch Market Shipment Forecasts, Dollars, 2001-2006


DWDM Market Shares, 2000

Global DWDM Landline Market Shares, 2000

DWDM Market Forecasts, Dollars, 2000-2006

Global DWDM Market Shipment Forecasts, Dollars, 2001-2006

Worldwide Wireless Infrastructure Shipments By Company, 2000

Worldwide Wireless Handset Market Shares, Dollars, 2000

Wireless Infrastructure Equipment Provider Shipments, 1999 and 2000

Global Wireless Base Station Equipment Shipment Forecasts, 2000-2006

Global Wireless Switching Equipment Shipment Forecast, 2000-2006

Global Wireless Handset Shipment Forecasts, 2000-2006

Total Global Wireless Equipment Shipment Forecast, 2000-2006

Global Telecommunications Wireless Equipment Shipment Forecasts By Segment, Dollars, 2000-2006



Lucent Primary Switching Solutions

Lucent WaveStar LambdaRouter Features

Lucent WaveStar Lambda Router All-Optical Cross-Connect

Lucent WaveStar LambdaRouter Applications

Characteristics of Electronic Switching

Difficulties With All Optical Switching

Lucent’s Primary Optical Networking Products

Lucent Wireless Product Families

Lucent Software Product Positioning

Lucent Software Applications

Lucent Primary Software Product Solutions

Lucent Primary Software Products

Primary Data Networking And Access Solutions For Service Provider

NX64000™ Multi-Terabit Switch/Router Features

Lucent NetworkCare Professional Services

Lucent NetworkCare Network Services

Lucent Primary Optoelectronic Product Groups

Lucent Primary Fiber Optic Products

Seamless All-Optical Network Issues


Lucent Sales By Sector 2000

Lucent Sales By Sector 1999 And 2000

Lucent Shipments By Region, Dollars, 2000

Lucent Revenue By Region

about the company


    WinterGreen Research, founded in 1985, provides strategic market assessments in telecommunications, communications equipment, health care, and advanced computer technology.  Industry reports focus on opportunities that will expand existing markets or develop major new markets.  The reports assess new product and service positioning strategies, new and evolving technologies, and technological impact on products, services, and markets.  Market shares are provided.  Leading market participants are profiled, and their marketing strategies, acquisitions, and strategic alliances are discussed.  The principals of WinterGreen Research have been involved in analysis and forecasting of international business opportunities in telecommunications and advanced computer technology markets for over 30 years.


about the principal authors


Ellen T. Curtiss, Technical Director, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, conducts strategic and market assessments in technology-based industries.  Previously she was a member of the staff of Arthur D. Little, Inc., for 23 years, most recently as Vice President of Arthur D. Little Decision Resources, specializing in strategic planning and market development services.  She is a graduate of Boston University and the Program for Management Development at Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration.  She is the author of recent studies on worldwide telecommunications markets and the Top Ten Telecommunications market analysis and forecasts.


Susan Eustis, President, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, has done research in communications and computer markets and applications.  She holds several patents in microcomputing and parallel processing.  She is the author of recent studies of the Regional Bell Operating Companies' marketing strategies, Internet equipment, a study of Internet Equipment, Worldwide Telecommunicaitons Equipment, Top Ten Telecommunications, Digital Loop Carrier, Web Hosting, and Application Integration markets.  Ms. Eustis is a graduate of Barnard College.


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