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Report No. A803999280  220+Pages 55 Tables and Figures 1999   


    Linux represents a stable, full function operating system alternative to NT.  Linux has an installed base of 17 million in 1998, estimated to climb to 100 million by 2003, much of that in China and Asia.  Linux now dominates Internet e-mail server applications.  It is poised to participate in distributed transaction processing markets.  Value chain and supply chain applications promise to enhance the usefulness of Linux.  By extending the reach of the system, market participants leverage the effectiveness of it.

    Companies do not sell Linux, they sell solutions that are based on Linux.  By going up the value chain, market participants enhance the usefulness and value of Linux.  By extending the reach of the system, the market participants leverage the effectiveness of it.



Building Growth

Integrated Solutions Market Research Study

Application Middleware

Market Forecasts to 2003















Linux:  An Open Source,

Stable Operating System





Multi-processor system

User interfaces intuitive

Enterprise support offered

Internet applications

Known and reliable 

Scalable system delivered

Advanced multiuser system

Multi-tasking system

Intel PC operation

Worldwide Internet

Co-developed programming

Workstation or server


The Study Addresses These Questions:

                   What is driving Linux markets?

                   What are trends in Linux ?

                   How do companies position?

                   Which partner strategies work?

                 How do partnerships work?

                 What strategic alliances work?

                 What are Linux directions?

Market opportunity analysis

You NEED This Study



BEA Systems

Caldera Systems


Computer Assoicates                                                                                                         

Collective Technologies

Corel Corporation                                                                                                               

Cygnus Solutions                                                                                                                


Dell Computer                                                                                                                     


Global Knowledge

Hewlett Packard                                                                                                                  

IBM / MQSeries

KDE Information                                                                                                                  



Lynx Real-Time



Object Share

Precision Insight

QNX Software

Red Hat Software




VA Linux


White Pine

Report Outline


    Executive summary

1. LINUX MARKET DESCRIPTION AND MARKET OPPORTUNITY                                                                                                                         

Linux Definition / Positioning

Licensing / Development Effort

Linux Advantages Over NT

Platforms / Applications                                                                                                                                                    

Stability / Limitations

Linux Electronic Commerce                                                                                                                                               

User Interface Issues                                                                                                                                                         

Internet Service Provider

2. LINUX MARKET FORECASTS AND MARKETING STRATEGIES                                                                                           

Market driving forces

Advantages of open source

Internet markets

Market participants

Market forecasts

Linux applications

E-mail servers

Distributed transaction servers

High performance researh

Single purpose existing systems

Communicaitons servers

Telecommunicaitons servers

Office applicaitons

Industry segments


Distributed transaction servers

Linux services and support


Suse Europe

Red Hat Europe

TurboLinux Asia Pacific

Installation and setup

Embedded systems

3. LINUX MARKET DYNAMICS AND PRODUCT DESCRIPTIONS                                                                               

Supplier Role in Linux Continued Development                                                                                                            



Caldera Systems Targets Embedded Market                                                                                                                     

Internet Solutions                                                                                                                                                               

Caldera Systems / Sun                                                                                                                                                        



Computer Associates                                                                                                                                                        

Unicenter TNG Framework                                                                                                                                               


Cygnus Solutions                                                                                                                                                               


Dell Computers                                                                                                                                                                   

Emrpess Software                                                                                                                                                               

Global Knowledge                                                                                                                                                              

Hewlett Packard                                                                                                                                                                  

Hewlett Packard / Red Hat                                                                                                                                                

Hewlett Packard / Precision Insight                                                                                                                                   



Red Hat / Caldera                                                                                                                                                               

TurboLinux / Customer Support                                                                                                                                       

Response to Competition                                                                                                                                                  

Speech Recognition Technology

Intel / Mandrake / Motorola                                                                                                                                             

Object Share / VisualWorks,                                                                                                                                             

Precision Insight                                                                                                                                                                 

Red Hat 

E-Commerce Server                                                                                                                                                            

Portal / Pricing                                                                                                                                                                    

Training and Certification                                                                                                                                                  

Silicon Graphics                                                                                                                                                                  

Sun Microsystems                                                                                                                                                             

SuSe / TurboLinux

White Pine 

4.  MOVE TO OPEN SYSTEMS SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY                                                                        

Reasons for Open Systems                                                                                                                                               

Impact of The Internet                                                                                                                                                       

Internet Transformation of Competitive Landscape                                                                                                     

Open Source Changes

Internet Development

Open Source Software                                                                                                                                                       

Open Source Alternatives

Proprietary Software                                                                                                                                                          

Operating System Kernel                                                                                                                                                  

Benefits of Linux                                                                                                                                                                 

Obstacles to Market Acceptance                                                                                                                                    

Desk Top Environments                                                                                                                                                    

Lines of Code                                                                                                                                                                      

Cross Platform Issues                                                                                                                                                        

Workstation Supercluster System                                                                                                                                   

Operating Systems Kernel                                                                                                                                                

Red Hat Linux Components                                                                                                                                              

Tools / Core / Extreme Linux                                                                                                                                             

Linux Boot Process                                                                                                                                                            

5. LINUX company profiles


Value-Added Resellers                                                                                                                                                     1

Red Hat Strategy                                                                                                                                                                

Agents / Web / Alliances                                                                                                                                                    

Red Hat /Computer Associates                                                                                                                                         

Cisco Systems / Red Hat                                                                                                                                                   

Custom operating systems

Value of applications                                                                                                                                                         

IBM Linux positioning                                                                                                                                                       

BEA Linux positioning                                                                                                                                                      

Applix And Caldera Systems                                                                                                                                            

Empress Software and Lynx Real-Time Systems                                                                                                           

Debian Partners                                                                                                                                                                 1

Corel and the K Desktop

List of Tables and Figures

Market Shares / Forecasts,  1998-2003

Linux System Benefits / Linux Uses                                                                                                                                

Linux Feature List / Kernel Features

Advantages of the GPL License

Linux Market Driving Forces

Advantages and Disadvnatages of Linux

Open Source Software Applications

Selected Linux Market Participants

Linux Applicaiotn Server Markets

U.S. Internet Hosts, 1998-2003

Site Networks, 1998-2003

Internet E-Commerce, Dollars, 1998-2003

Internet Users Worldwide, 1998-2003

Internet Networks Connected, 1998-2003

Megabytes Of Internet Traffic, 1998-2003

Linux Market Shares, 1998

Market Forecasts Global Server Market

Unix, NT, and Linux, Units, Dollars, 1998-2003

Microsoft Platform And Business Application

Microsoft PC Application Products

Worldwide, US PC Shipments, 1998-2003

Worldwide PC Installed Base

Commercial And Consumer, 1998-2003

Applications Development Tools Market

E-Mail Messaging Users, 1998

U.S. LAN Ports, Installed Base, Market

Global LAN Ports, Installed Base

Microsoft Regional Revenue, 1998

Microsoft Quarterly Revenue, Segments, 1998

Distributed Transaction Server Market Shares, Handheld Computer Operating System Market

Computer Associates Integrated Management

Empress Internet Development / Suite                                                                                                                            

IBM Linux Initiatives                                                                                                                                                         

Red Hat Linux E-commerce Server Modules                                                                                                                  

Advantages of Red Hat Linux                                                                                                                                          

Red Hat Installation Enhancements                                                                                                                                

White Pine Software Products                                                                                                                                         

Internet Equipment Market Trends                                                                                                                                 

Business Analysis Benefits of Internet

Internet Uses / Transformation Landscape                                                                                                                    

Open Source Software Characterizes                                                                                                                              

Open Source Software Model / Internet                                                                                                                         

Open Source Software Development Benefits

Prevalence Of Open Source Software                                                                                                                             

Benefits Of Linux-Based Operating System                                                                                                                   

Obstacles To Widespread Open Source Code Adoption Within Enterprise Computing

Linux Desktop Environments                                                                                                                                           

Linux Desktop Code Layers                                                                                                                                              

Operating System Components                                                                                                                                       

Red Hat Component Function                                                                                                                                          

Cygnus Market Positioning / Customers                                                                                                                       

Components Of Global Knowledge Training

Features Of The QNX Operating System                                                                                                                       

List Of Red Hat Customers                                                                                                                                               

Third Party Applications Included In Red Hat

White Pine Customers                                                                                                                                                       



This is the thirty first in a series of market forecasts of communications, telecommunications, Internet,  and computer and telephone equipment.  Intuitive learning systems and hiding complexity from the user form an integral part of telecommunications/data communications market convergence.  The project leaders have significant experience preparing industry studies, having written over 300.  Forecasts are based on primary research and proprietary data bases.  In-depth interviews are conducted with a broad range of key vendor and user participants in the market.  Opinion leaders and users are interviewed to determine market directions and new product features needed.

about the company


                        WinterGreen Research, founded in 1985, provides strategic market assessments in telecommunications, communications equipment, health care and advanced computer technology.  Industry reports focus on opportunities that will expand existing markets or develop major new markets.  The reports assess new product and service positioning strategies, new and evolving technologies, and technological impacts on products, services, and markets.  Market shares are estimated.  Leading market participants are profiled, and their marketing strategies, acquisitions, and strategic alliances are discussed.  The principals of WinterGreen Research have been involved in analysis and forecasting of international business opportunities in telecommunications and advanced computer technology markets for over 30 years.


about the principal authors


Ellen T. Curtiss, Technical Director, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, conducts strategic and market assessments in technology-based industries.  Previously she was a member of the staff of Arthur D. Little, Inc., for 23 years, most recently as Vice President of Arthur D. Little Decision Resources, specializing in strategic planning and market development services.  She is a graduate of Boston University and the Program for Management Development at Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration.  She is the author of recent studies on worldwide telecommunications markets and the Top Ten Telecommunications market analysis and forecasts. 


Susan Eustis,  President, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, has done research in communications and computer markets and applications.  She holds several patents in microcomputing and parallel processing.  She is the author of recent studies of the Regional Bell Operating Companies' marketing strategies, Internet equipment, and of a study of Internet and Intranet markets.  Ms. Eustis is a graduate of Barnard College.


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Linux:  Building Growth, Integrated Solutions Marketing,

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