CABLE INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET STATUS, OPTIONS AND STRATEGIES FORECASTS TO 2002
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Cable communications markets are maturing. Core entertainment business protection requires upgrading to digital capacity. Cable companies are positioning to offer high definition TV. Digital cable delivery permits the addition of 20 or 30 regular subscription channels. The number of pay per view channels increases. Digital signals provide superior picture and sound quality as compared to analog signals. Cable companies are implementing clear return paths with set top box Internet access.
Implementation of hybrid-fiber infrastructure provides broadband access. Internet services represent incremental revenue potential from existing customers. The cable industry is investing aggressively in network upgrades. 20 different multiple system operator (MSO) technical and marketing trials are proving the broadband digital technology effectiveness. Two way Internet services have been implemented in 16 states.
Cable TV subscriber upgrades are analyzed in the study. 35% of hybrid fiber coax (HFC) upgrades, or 23 million homes passed, have been completed by the end of 1997. 50% of the upgrades are complete in mid 1998. 51.4 million more subscribers will need to be upgraded by 2002. 111,500 nodes need to be installed by 2002 at an average cost of $73,000 per node. The bulk of these will be in nodes serving 500 subscribers. As more people connect to the Internet, cable companies will upgrade their networks, reaching 200 subscribers per node in places where there is high usage. However, high usage denotes high revenue, and the investment in 200 subscribers per node will be justified at that time.
Annual incremental Internet revenue per node is $48,000. The payback comes from the improvement in core services with an increased value of the digital network so that companies can offer high definition TV signals. Increased revenues achieved from high definition TV and Internet services make the investment feasible. A three to four year payback on the capital investment is contemplated.
CABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET STATUS, OPTIONS AND STRATEGIES
Forecasts to
2002
Market
Parameters:
Cable
capital spending
Subscriber
base
Node
analysis
Cost
per node
Miles
of fiber
Miles
of coax
Network
upgrade path
Internet
telephony
Competitive analysis demands understanding of cable
infrastructure status. Cable
upgrades provide broadband two way communications paths. Hybrid fiber loops are needed to offer high definition TV and
telephony competition over the Internet.
· Hybrid-fiber infrastructure provides broadband access
·
Digital cable delivery
permits the addition of subscription channels
·
Cable companies are
implementing clear return paths that permit set top box Internet access
· Internet services represent potential for incremental revenue from existing customers
· Cable infrastructure will be 98% upgraded by 2000
The Study Addresses:
·
Market
strategies for partnering
·
Strategic
positioning of cable companies
·
Strategic
market alliances / Market directions
·
Risk/reward
scenarios
·
Access to
customer bases
You NEED This Study
Market strategy dynamics:
COMPANIES
PROFILED
@HOME NETWORK
ADELPHI
HYPERION TELECOMMUNICATIONS
COMCAST
CORNING
COX COMMUNICATIONS
SPECTRUM
SUN MICROSYSTEMS
TCI
TELEDISIC
TELEPORT
TERAYON
TIME WARNER
U S WEST MEDIA GROUP
U S WEST !NTERPRISE
COMMSCOPE
GENERAL SIGNAL
IMEDIA
NEXTLEVEL SYSTEMS
REPORT OUTLINE
Cable infrastructure
Executive summary
1. Cable infrastructure market description
Issues
2. Cable infrastructure market forecasts
Cable market trends
Households profile
Cable industry profile
Clustering
U.S. Internet
Number of users
Internet hosts
Cable modems
ISDN
xDSL
Global Internet
Internet telephony
Telecommunications
Fiber/coax network
US West
TCI
Direct broadcast satellite (DBS)
Cable infrastructure upgrades
Local market competition
MMDS/LMDS
Competitive market aspects
Digital compression
Private cable
Broadcast television
FCC
3. Cable services positioning for broadband infrastructure
Time Warner
Cox technological advances
Services network architecture requirements
Cox ring within a ring / WDM
Broadband network cost analysis
Architecture
Cox deployment of broadband
Headend equipment
Cable services
Adelphi
Internet services
@home
New cable programming services
Adelphi Internet
Telephone infrastructure
Telephone services
Time Warner Communications
TCI
Cox
Continental
Adelphi
Consumer set top boxes
Scientific-Atlanta
Cox
COMCAST cable
TCI
Sun Microsystems / TCI
General Instrument / Adelphi
Business services
PCS mobile telephone
Satellite
Primmest
Network management
Cabletron
4. Cable infrastructure technology
Digital cable
Digital compression
Cox
TCI
Fiber optics
Network architecture
Cox Fibernet
@home
Regional data centers
Cable modems
Network operations center
xDSL/cable modem competitive issues
Current technology trials
Impulse pay-per-view in
Emerald coast cable and impulse technology
Transparent LAN service
ATM
Cell relay
Permanent virtual connections
Sonet
Hybrid fiber-coax
Ingress/thermal noise
Return transmission issues
Satellite
Celestri
Digital set top boxes
Scientific-Atlanta
Interactive-ready set-top terminal
5. Cable company profiles
@home network
Adelphi
Hyperion Telecommunications
Cablevision
Century
Comcast Corporation
Corning
Cox Communications
Jones Intercable
Lenfest Group
Media One
Spectrum
Sun Microsystems
TCI
Teledisic
Teleport
Terayon
Time Warner
U S West media group
U S West !nterprise
6. Cable infrastructure equipment provider company profiles
Commscope
General Signal
Imedia
NextLevel systems
7. Cable broadband applications
Wide area network connectivity of schools
Cox Fibernet
Telemedicine
Cox Fibernet
Security
Time Warner
Broadband cable online service
Time Warner road runner
US West
Work place flexibility
Time Warner linerunner
Videoconferencing
US West video solutions
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
FORECASTS
1997-2002
Market
Shares 1997
U.S.
Markets Units & Dollars
Internet
Global Markets Units & Dollars
Aspects of infrastructure
Competitive advantages upgraded broadband
Cable market trends
Cable homes passed
Cable two way capability
Cable market shares
Cable subscribers
Cable channel capacity
Cable TV revenue
Cable systems/subscribers
U.S. Internet users, total
Cable TV Internet access revenue forecast
U.S. Internet access market
U.S. Internet purchases,
U.S. Internet hosts
Cable modem shares / forecasts /units / dollars
Cable modem market forecasts, unit, penetration of U.S. Households
Types of cable modem user
ISDN lines installed
xDSL market forecasts
Global Internet users
Worldwide Internet purchases
Internet telephone market driving forces
Worldwide Internet telephone users, total
U.S. Internet telephone software market forecast
Home office workers
Installed base of PCs in households, market forecasts
Telecommunications local services revenue
Telecommunications long distance revenue
U.S. Internet telephone users, total
U.S. Miles of telephone wire
Outside plant km of fiber RBOCs
Outside plant km of fiber, RBOC regional summary
Telco TV subscribers
RBOC outside plant copper,
Deployment of two-way broadband infrastructure
Direct broadcast satellite market shares/subscribers
/subscriber penetration greater than 10%, 1997
Cable system miles of plant,
TCI cable system bandwidth Plant status
Cable TV capital spending
Total cable TV capital spending analytical parameters, for fiber, coax, and headend upgrades
Cable TV upgrades, node, capital spending analysis
Time Warner Cable Road Runner markets
Configuration and advantages of Cox fiber ring-in-ring architecture
xDSL and cable modem common performance concerns
Cable increases in capacity
Cable modem technology trials
Selected transparent LAN
Adelphia's lines of business
U S West !nterprise supplier / equipment partners
REPORT METHODOLOGY
This is the twenty-seventh in a series of market forecasts of wireline,
wireless, Internet data communications, telecommunications,
and information services. The
project leaders have significant experience preparing industry studies.
Forecasts are based on primary research and proprietary data bases.
In-depth interviews are conducted with a broad range of key
participants in the market.
about
the company
WinterGreen Research, founded in 1985, provides strategic market
assessments in telecommunications, communications equipment, health care and
advanced computer technology. Industry
reports focus on opportunities that will expand existing markets or develop
major new markets. The reports
assess new product and service positioning strategies; new and evolving
technologies; and technological impacts on products, services, and markets.
Market shares are estimated. Leading
market participants are profiled, and their marketing strategies, acquisitions,
and strategic alliances are discussed. The
principals of WinterGreen Research have been involved in analysis and
forecasting of international business opportunities in telecommunications and
advanced computer technology markets for over 30 years.
about
the principal authors
Ellen T. Curtiss, Technical Director, co-founder of WinterGreen
Research, conducts strategic and market assessments in technology-based
industries. Previously she was a
member of the staff of Arthur D. Little, Inc., for 23 years, most recently as
Vice President of Arthur D. Little Decision Resources, specializing in strategic
planning and market development services. She
is a graduate of Boston University and the Program for Management Development at
Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration.
Susan Eustis, Vice President, co-founder of WinterGreen Research,
has done research in communications and computer markets and applications.
She holds several patents in microcomputing and parallel processing.
She is the author of recent studies of the Regional Bell Operating
Companies' marketing strategies, worldwide telecommunications markets, and of a
study of Internet and Intranet markets. Ms.
Eustis is a graduate of Barnard College.
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