ATM: Equipment Market Forecasts / Strategic Opportunity 

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Report    No. A786596219    300+ PAGES    65 TABLES AND FIGURES    1996   

    

    ATM is discussed in the context of market drivers, virtual networks, and impact of network congestion. ATM markets are growing as companies seek to upgrade their backbone communications infrastructure. ATM promises to be very competitive in price with other technologies. As this happens, significant growth will occur. ATM markets: WAN, enterprise, LAN, and PC are forecast in units and dollars. Market share information is detailed. Growth is anticipated for all networks segments. LAN environments will have significant growth as workers at every level share more data with each other and access more information electronically. In LAN environments, quality of service and reliability represent market drivers. Explosive growth opportunities for ATM at the client level are described. Decreasing price points in the desktop ATM-25 market segment represent a unique market growth factor. Enterprise systems markets will be driven by new Intranet implementations. Carriers promise to purchase ATM switches to compete more effective and efficiently with private networks and to implement new services including desktop video conferencing.

 

 

 

ATM:

 

 VIRTUAL NETWORK REVOLUTION -- EQUIPMENT FORECASTS TO 2000.

 


 

MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

 

 

ATM broadband communications growth is evolving as networks become congested with the increase in data used for distributed processing.  Competition with private networks, efficient delivery of enterprise data, virtual networks, video conferencing, and other data transactions represent significant market growth drivers.

 

 

       Replace private networks with broadband carrier ones

       Implement video conferencing

       Implement groupware

       Relieve overloaded frame relay and Ethernet LAN networks as a result of increases in computing speed and power

       Simplify access to the backbone

       Provide new open system technologies

       Interconnect desktop computing power so it can be harnessed for enterprise use during time when employees not using computers

       Support strategic partnering

       Support suppliers, distributors, and sales force from the enterprise

 

ATM will simplify access to the backbone as other network systems become overloaded.  ATM promises to be very competitive in price with other technologies.  As this happens, significant growth will occur.  ATM market growth is anticipated for all networks segments. LAN environments will have significant growth as workers at every level share more data with each other and access more information electronically. 

Decreasing price points in the desktop ATM-25 market segment represent a unique market growth factor.  Quality of service and reliability represent market drivers.  Enterprise systems markets will be driven by new Intranet implementations.  Carriers promise to purchase ATM switches to compete more effectively and efficiently with private networks and to implement new services. 

 

Key Findings of Study                Key Market Directions and Opportunities                 


         ATM migration paths are creating demand for products

         Network overloads are creating need for more bandwidth

         Network congestion can be alleviated by ATM

         Private networks can be replaced by carrier based ATM

         Applications will drive ATM implementation

         Companies are positioning to sell complete solutions


COMPANY PROFILES

ADAPTEC

ADC KENTROX

AGILE NETWORKS

ATMNET

ALCATEL

AT&T

BAY NETWORKS

CABLETRON

CASCADE

CISCO

3COM CORPORATION

CROSSCOMM

DIGITAL EQUIPMENT

DYNATECH/TTC

EFFICIENT NETWORKS

FASTCOMM COMMUNICATIONS

FORE SYSTEMS

FUJITSU

GENERAL DATACOMM

GENERAL INSTRUMENT

HEWLETT-PACKARD

IBM

INTERPHASE

LANOPTICS

LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES

MADGE NETWORKS

MICROSOFT

NCR

NETSCAPE

NCUBE

NETWORK EQUIPMENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

NEWBRIDGE NETWORKS

NORTHERN TELECOM LIMITED

ALL-OPTICAL NETWORKING CONSORTIUM

PACIFIC TELESIS

RSA DATA SECURITY

SPRINT

SIEMENS

STRATACOM

SUN MICROSYSTEMS

UB NETWORKS

U.S. ROBOTICS

WHITTAKER

WHITETREE

XYLAN          

REPORT METHODOLOGY

This is the eleventh in a series of market forecasts of networking and interoperability.  The project leaders have significant experience preparing industry studies.  Forecasts are based on primary research and proprietary data bases.  In-depth interviews are conducted with a broad range of key participants and opinion leaders.


REPORT OUTLINE

executive summary

 

I  MARKET PROFILE

MARKET SHIFTS

implementation of

     virtual

     corporation

 

II  MARKET ANALYSIS

OVERVIEW

NETWORKING PRODUCTS

COMPUTER MARKET

ETHERNET SWITCHING

FRAME RELAY

token ring

REMOTE ACCESS

ATM TRIALS

TIME WARNER ORLANDO

north carolina

 

III  PRODUCT POSITIONING

BUSINESS CONCERNS

ATM SWITCHES

SCALABLE                 

~    ARCHITECTURES

ATM LAN SWITCHES

FORE

BAY NETWORKS

IBM

DIGITAL EQUIPMENT

CISCO

3COM

UB NETWORKS

CASCADE  

    COMMUNICATIONS

XYLAN

WHITTAKER

MADGE

ENTERPRISE LAN / WAN ATM

STRATACOM

NEWBRIDGE

NETEDGE SYSTEMS

WIDE AREA NETWORK SWITCHES

FUJITSU

DESKTOP ATM

GENERAL INSTRUMENT

FIRST VIRTUAl

WHITETREE

UB NETWORKS

GENERAL INSTRUMENT

ATM EMULATION

atm ANALYSIS

HEWLETT-PACKARD

TELENEX, ADTECH

TEKELEC, TTC/DYNATECH

ATM HEADEND, WEBTOP

 

IV ATM TECHNOLOGY

DEPLOYMENT CONSTRAINTS

NETWORK MANAGEMENT

Local area network

FRAME RELAY/ATM INTERNETWORKING

TOKEN RING/ATM INTERNETWORKING

ETHERNET/ATM

WORKGROUP SWITCHING

LAN EMULATION

STANDARDS AND PROTOCOLS

SWITCHED ETHERNET/ATM COMPATIBILITY

CABLE TV BROADBAND

CONGESTION AVOIDANCE

RELIABILITY

FIBER BASED

SWITCHED VIRTUAL CIRCUITS

SUBCLASSES

DYNAMIC BIT RATE

band ALLOCATION

ATM EDGE TECHNOLOGY

NETWORK CONTROL

SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT

CABLE MODEM

ATM EMULATION 

ATM ANALYSIS

ISDN

ENCRYPTION

RESOURCE PLANNING

FAULT MANAGEMENT

DYNAMIC ALLOCATION   NETWORK INTELLIGENCE

 

V  ATM FORECASTS

SUMMARY FORECASTS

VIRTUAL NETWORKS

growth FACTORS

MARKET SHARES:

market FORECASTS:

Installed base:

LOCAL AREA NETWORK

ENTERPRISE

CARRIER BACKBONE

DESK TOP ATM

ATM EMULATION

ANALYSIS EQUIPMENT

ATM HUB MARKET

ATM NETWORK SERVICES

 

VI. APPLICATIONS DRIVING ATM IMPLEMENTATION

ATM APPLICATION MARKET DRIVERS

DISTANCE LEARNING

REMOTE DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE

TELEMEDICINE

VIDEO CONFERENCING

INTERACTIVE VIDEO

BILLING SYSTEMS

CD ROM DELIVERY

VIDEO ARRAIGNMENT

 

VII  STRATEGIC MARKETING, STRATEGIC ALLIANCES ACQUISITIONS

OVERVIEW

MARKETING

DISTRIBUTION

STRATEGIC POSITIONING

FORE/GENERAL INSTRU-MENT/MICROSOFT

GENERAL INSTRUMENT/ FORE/ CABLELABS

MOTOROLA AND SUN MICROSYSTEMS

MICROSOFT AND DIRECT TV

NETSCAPE/AT&T/AMERICA ONLINE

SPRINT, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, AND FRANCE TELECOM

GENERAL DATACOMM/DIGITAL

NORTEL/FORE SYSTEMS

aCQUISITIONS

MULTI-COMPANY ISDN


LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES


1995-2000  FORECASTS AND MARKET SHARES BY SEGMENT

ATM Market Shares, 1995

ATM Forecasts, 1995-2000

ATM Port Shipments, 1995-2000

ATM Installed Base, 1995-2000

ATM Penetration, 1995-2000

LAN SWITCHES

ENTERPRISE SWITCHES

CARRIER SWITCHES

DESKTOP ADAPTERS

ATM Services, 1995-2000

SERVICES descriptions

FORCES CREATING NEED FOR MORE COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK THROUGHPUT

DRIVING FORCES FOR ATM

 

about the company

                        WinterGreen Research, founded in 1985, provides strategic market assessments in telecommunications, communications equipment, health care and advanced computer technology.  Industry reports focus on opportunities that will expand existing markets or develop major new markets.  The reports assess new product and service positioning strategies; new and evolving technologies; and technological impacts on products, services, and markets.  Market shares are estimated.  Leading market participants are profiled, and their marketing strategies, acquisitions, and strategic alliances are discussed.  The principals of WinterGreen Research have been involved in analysis and forecasting of international business opportunities in telecommunications and advanced computer technology markets for over 30 years.

 

about the principals

 

Ellen T. Curtiss, Technical Consultant, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, conducts strategic and market assessments in technology-based industries.  Previously she was a member of the staff of Arthur D. Little, Inc., for 23 years, most recently as Vice President of Arthur D. Little Decision Resources, specializing in strategic planning and market development services.  A graduate of Boston University and the Program for Management Development at Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration, she is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

 

Susan Eustis, President, co-founder of WinterGreen Research, has done research in communications and computer markets and applications.  She holds several patents in microcomputing and parallel processing.  She is the author of recent studies of the Regional Bell Operating Companies' marketing strategies and of a study of telecommunications company positioning in the European market.  Ms. Eustis is a graduate of Barnard College.

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